Investor View
Financial & Risk Dashboard
Bankable financial model for the Osubi 15 MW flagship — CAPEX, OPEX, IRR, cashflow, funding, carbon credits, risk.
Total CAPEX
$18.6
m
EPC turnkey
OPEX (yr)
$0.48
m
O&M, insurance, land
Equity IRR
17.4
%
25-yr project life
Project ROI
2.3x
Undiscounted
Payback
7.2
yrs
LCOE
6.4
¢/kWh
Debt : Equity
70 : 30
Carbon credits
24.8
ktCO₂e/yr
25-year cashflow
Post-tax free cashflow, indicative.
Funding stack
- Development finance (AfDB / IFC)$8.5m
- Green bond (federal)$4.5m
- Sponsor equity$3.6m
- Grant / concessional$2.0m
Development timeline
- Development & permitting — 15%
- Financial close — 10%
- EPC construction — 45%
- Commissioning — 10%
- Operation — 20%
Risk analysis
Grid curtailment
TCN feeder constraints during off-peak
Medium
FX / macro
NGN depreciation vs USD debt service
High
PPA counterparty
NBET / BEDC bilateral payment risk
Medium
Land tenure
Community engagement in Okpe LGA
Low
Construction
EPC delay / cost overrun
Low
Sensitivity — Equity IRR (%)
PPA price × CAPEX overrun.
| PPA ¢/kWh ↓ · Overrun % → | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | 13.5 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 3.5 |
| 8.5 | 18.6 | 16.1 | 13.6 | 11.1 | 8.6 |
| 9.5 | 22.0 | 19.5 | 17.0 | 14.5 | 12.0 |
| 11.0 | 27.1 | 24.6 | 22.1 | 19.6 | 17.1 |
| 12.5 | 32.2 | 29.7 | 27.2 | 24.7 | 22.2 |